China continues to build its power at sea and air in the Pacific, and has developed nuclear weapons up to six times. Those two things fill the Pentagon's latest annual military report on China, which was published Nov. 28, 2022.
The report from the United States Department of Defense for Congress is titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2022. What has not been alluded to in the 196-page report is what lessons China will draw from the Russian war in Ukraine, if one day it decides to invade Taiwan?
The annual report is an open overview of the latest observations and trends in power within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The Pentagon stated that China's military policy includes 'safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development interests' while stressing its growing global role.
The PLA is expected to complete its rejuvenation program of mechanization, informatization and intelligence by 2027, just at the 100-year-old age of the People's Liberation Army of China. Meanwhile, right at the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China by 2049 there is a target of making the PLA a 'world-class' modern armed force.
The PLA is estimated to have 2.2 million personnel, compared to 1.4 million in the United States military. The comparison of defense spending is 261 billion and 801 billion dollars (equivalent to Rp 4,000 trillion and Rp 12.5 thousand trillion). Think tanks in Sweden, using different metrics, called China's military spending figure of 293 billion dollars.
Nuclear weapon
The Pentagon report also expects China's increase in nuclear weapons reserves to accelerate from 200 in 2020 to the current 400, and towards 1,500 through 2030. The new nuclear arsenal consists of hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles, two submarines and a future H-20 stealth bomber.
The Pentagon claims changes in Beijing's nuclear policy helped fuel the expansion of nuclear weapons in the country. The initial policy was that China built the minimum number of nuclear weapons it needed to defend against another country's first attack, then directly launched a counterattack into enemy urban centers.
Ocean Fleet
Another focus of the Pentagon report is on the strength of the Chinese Navy. Estimated, China is now the largest navy in the world with 340 combat platforms. This includes large personnel, submarines, amphibious ships, mineships, aircraft carriers, and other additional marine fleets. China's People's Liberation Army Navy is said to be heading towards a fleet strength of 400 ships by 2025 and 440 by 2030.
The claims in the report still need clarification. The reason is that China does have more warships, but the average weight of the type of ship is much smaller than that of the US Navy. Type 056 corvettes and type 022 missile boats, for example, seem to be more suitable for coastal patrols.
The Pentagon also doesn't compare it to the eleven aircraft carriers its Navy owns. Each ship weighs 100 thousand tons, while China has two aircraft carriers currently operating at a weight, about 60 thousand tons each.
With all that ability, the question is, can China attack Taiwan now? The Pentagon's latest report doesn't cover it, and most analysts agree China still lacks a sea and air fleet to be able to cross the waters of the Taiwan Strait successfully--as of now.
But, for China, other strategies mentioned are still viable, including land and sea blockades or taking control of Kinmen, a Taiwanese-owned island off the coast of China.